Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 35.576475 40.196440 45.635480 52.638845 61.618456 73.053652 89.280047
2025-05-11 29.169292 34.784049 42.067877 52.641780 68.471928 93.127321 139.603598
2025-05-18 24.857534 30.703709 38.801985 51.633875 73.400945 114.240616 220.929348
2025-05-25 22.189703 28.172036 36.906881 51.818191 80.214729 145.088923 411.756361
2025-06-01 20.086479 26.022377 35.039143 51.363047 85.658528 180.522234 924.744379
2025-06-08 18.396791 24.204721 33.302826 50.574751 90.064322 221.846721 3636.871808
2025-06-15 17.058276 22.732956 31.855043 49.899840 94.481885 275.572063 NaN
2025-06-22 16.000425 21.567160 30.726008 49.545851 99.691760 353.903086 NaN
2025-06-29 14.964892 20.327553 29.292055 48.209872 101.486678 427.255198 NaN
2025-07-06 14.640015 20.198124 29.795880 51.216490 119.491417 834.736571 NaN
2025-07-13 13.910760 19.326958 28.819004 50.567455 124.316755 1246.139171 NaN
2025-07-20 13.380112 18.744418 28.312783 50.948280 134.029858 2649.835468 NaN
2025-07-27 12.913435 18.242842 27.921484 51.594668 146.436379 14915.480278 NaN
2025-08-03 12.439966 17.693828 27.376694 51.729993 157.161508 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.915224 17.018678 26.510626 50.807343 161.513652 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.534960 16.574494 26.071294 51.011951 173.873952 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.134833 16.068897 25.455947 50.579359 182.052202 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.741220 15.552256 24.772517 49.815463 187.427753 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.386030 15.086302 24.158698 49.159188 193.540130 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.079801 14.693767 23.670628 48.814713 202.728662 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.726446 14.197542 22.922347 47.511290 201.466808 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.684505 14.274327 23.428756 50.444901 253.292837 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.412599 13.906121 22.916219 49.811980 261.877319 NaN NaN